Elevator down

We may ramp higher into turkey day, but I think that ultimately we will revisit and fall below the 7800 Dow number we hit earlier. We are going to see massive job losses of epic proportions in the coming months and I think that a depression is not out of the question.

Fugly Times

Strange how we get a big rally today. What exactly is the market pricing in? A better than expected Christmas perhaps? I doubt that will happen but who knows. I am dealing with massive losses and wondering if indeed that long term investing is dead. I doubt that we will be seeing average annual returns of 10% in the future, unless foreign growth can remain strong. If the Gov does decide to tax 401k's, as unbelievable as I think that will be, look for a massive selloff as that style of investing will be badly damaged, in fact I believe that the stock market is badly damaged as shown by the performance of the S&P500 over the last 10 years. I fear we are heading toward a Japan scenario.

Strange and Stranger

Somehow I managed to make the biggest gain of the year this week. Up 4.5% for the week. I am still 40% cash unfortunately. I wondered all last year what it would take to give the market grief and we have seen it over the past few weeks. I feel if the fed doesn't cut next month we could be back to some major selling and yet the past shows that once the fed starts cutting rates the market also runs into trouble. It looks like I should get some short candidates ready to play for next month.

Bottoms Up?

I don't know about a bottom, but to me it feels like we are on a change of sentiment. I pulled the plug, took some losses and raised some cash. I couldn't take the volatility anymore. I am hoping that I can lay low and wait for some even lower prices. I was wondering what it would take to suck the wind out of this market and here we are. Will the Fed save the day, I believe the Fed speaks next week so that may put some wind back under the sails of this market, and I will have regretted my sales and have to get back in at higher prices. But I guess what I am being shown is that I am not prepared to for the whipsawing that I am seeing in my securities. I either need to suck it up and deal with it or I need to re-allocate to something a little less volatile.

Bull?

In light of the recent back off in bonds and the latest hyped PPI number I would have to say that things look bullish. But I don't think I will be buying today. In a way it wouldn't bother me for the Fed to do one more rate hike and then to sit still until next year. I think that would mean that the economy is staying strong so corporate earnings will remain strong and the stock market will head higher. If the fed cuts then that will bring on worries about how much the economy is slowing and how much of an impact we will see on corporate earnings, which means selling of stocks.

something big

This move feels like the beginning of a big shift in market sentiment. Reit's, Utilities, and one of my bond holdings are taking a major hit. Fortunately they are all CEG's and are getting more undervalued, which I am hoping will attract more buyers when the selling is done. I am holding them for the dividends and for the long term. I have a nice cash position for doing some buying but I don't think that this is a good time to start loading up. Looks like the summer doldrums have arrived and if the Fed were to raise again, which I think is possible, we could see a major market meltdown, worldwide.

Turbulence

Well the long awaited selling is finally here. I had to bail on a couple of longs I had and take a little loss. Still holding ddm and sso and so far regretting it. Reit's and Utilities getting killed. Went short with qid, but the way things have gone with these etf's I doubt that I will make very much if anything. Will the dip buyers re-appear? I say not to the extent that they have been. I won't be doing any buying today. Will have to see things stabilize a little first. Sitting about 40% cash.

Unbelievable

I can't believe this market. What is it going to take for the meltdown to occur? All companies need to do is beat reduced earnings expectations in the face of slower earnings growth and people are throwing money at these stocks. Makes no sense. Hopefully my being cautious will payoff in the long run, but for now I am getting left in the dust. It is difficult to chase stocks at these levels.