Where from here?

I am keeping my shorts over the weekend. Where do we go from here? I almost can't recall a time when there has been so many crosswinds for this market to overcome. I won't bother to list them all. I sold out of emerging markets today simply to lock in the profits that I had. I have an order to sell EFA to also hold onto the profits. So far my profit taking has helped to keep my account balance higher than I would of been if I was just buying and holding.

hedging

Currently using SDS and MZZ as hedges, they are short funds. I can't see how corporate america is going to keep consistantly beating quarter after quarter. I would think if anything the Fed has done has been working that we have to begin seeing some earnings forecasts heading down rather than up. I think this could be the quarter and I am thinking about going more short. It appears that many of the bloggers have gotten this move wrong, they were leaning short too soon and then they turned bullish and are now I think possibly leaning in the wrong direction.

Off Lows

At least at the moment, I am well off the lows of the day. Housing falloff seems to have been the culprit. I am almost 100% long. I really need a rally here sooner than later so that I can take some profits off the table. I am not expecting earnings to keep coming in at double digit time and time again. This quarter may be the time we miss it. Lets face it, if things don't start slowing down in the broad economy the Fed will be raising rates rather than lower.

Well things are now heading lower, so it goes...

My Week

I was up 2.7% for the week. That is bad because the indexes were all up over 3%. I am finally starting to keep weekly performance stats of my portfolio against other model portfolios. If I can't beat the S&P 500 or the Total Stock market then I am just spinning my wheels. I think I am spread too thin. Time will tell. I am hoping for the rally to continue for a couple of more weeks. I will then take some profits and get defensive for the summer.

Flat Line

Bought some DVY and IWN. Wish I bought XLE. It is melting up. Could have gotten in at about $56 last week, now at $60....grrrrr.. I don't have enough energy in the mix. Keep popping red and green all day. It would be swell if we could close strongly in the green. But why should we?

Short Covering?

I suspect today was mainly short covering. Tomorrow will be the real tell on how much follow through we get. I suspect that the foreign markets are going to rock tonight. I think I may do some profit taking tomorrow.

Up 1.48% today, which is up less than the S&P, unfortunately. I think I am spread too thin.
I need to reposition into fewer and more focused holdings.

Ripping Higher

Everything I own is ripping higher. Apparently all of those earlier issues I raised don't matter. Well, earnings are on the way and we will see.... Up the most today: LOR UTF NRO DBP DBA EFA. It would be great if we rally through next month. I will pull the trigger, rein in profits and get a more defensive posture into summer.

Hopfully Bullish?

Once again we are melting up. Not sure why at the moment. Maybe Fed speak?? The weakness in the dollar appears to be spreading. Yesterday I bought a little DBP and I am thinking about buying more UTF. These are defensive plays. I don't see why we are going to rally from here. Housing, dollar, war, deficits, inflation, what should be slower growth ahead. All are headwinds. If growth and inflation doesn't start moderating the Fed has to keep raising rates. I am in the camp of no lowering by the Fed this year or at best maybe one lowering, unless the dollar plummets or we have some financial blowup somewhere.

negative

Weakness overseas, sub-prime and I think what may be a shaky earnings season are going to cause a big sell off on the open. I think I will be buying DVY as both a defensive play and for the nice dividend payout. The big question is, is this the start of a bigger move down?

green

things are coming up green all around. Foreign has been strong all day, now everything is popping higher. I bought a little more VWO earlier. Tracking several model portfolios on yahoo to see if I can design a portfolio with a little more juice and get an even better dividend out of it. Focusing more on strong sectors and a little less on broad indexes so far seems to be getting better performance. The question is better performance with how much more risk?

Not a bad week

Finished the day up .4% and all in all it was not a bad week. If this is the worst things get short term I am in pretty good shape.

churning about

I am green on the day with nearly everything up a little. My worries short term are how earnings are going to be and particularly what forward guidance will be. I don't sense that there is much conviction in the buying and for good reason, because of where the economy could be heading, which may be lower. I am sitting with about 20% cash. I feel the only way we are going to get the market juiced again is 1) fed hinting of a rate cut 2) some high profile companies saying that growth going forward still looks strong. We won't know that one until next month.

How Come?

If the futures hold where they are right now we are going to rip higher at the open. Don't know why all of a sudden people are in a mood to buy. In fact a few of the retailers are coming out with numbers a little on the light side. Maybe we are going to get a pump 'n' dump this morning.

Got $$$???

Finally broke into the green for the first time today. I am hopefully and now actually betting that we begin climbing higher sooner rather than later. I am now only holding about 20% cash down from 50% last week. Have I bought early? Only time will tell. I think I am about to get stopped out of QID. Once again lossing money trying to go short. I got in way too late.

Nice come back

I had a nice comeback yesterday but am still happy to be about 30% cash. It would make sense that we go down and move sideways for a while. I will do some more buying as we go. I am still exploring some model portfolios for the future. In particular am looking into the proshares funds on both the long and short end. Could have made out really good last week by picking up their short funds. I am still holding QID.

Nasty

I am having another nasty day. So much for diversification. I am getting hit on precious metals, Reit, Utilities and tech. Everything else is down but not as much as the others. If this is the worst it gets it is not a big deal but if we don't get off to a good start early next week this could be just the beginning of the selling. I still have cash but I will really regret having gotten back in some other the last few days. I never did buy any of the short funds, of course it is still not too late to dive in...

Good or no good?

I have been buying this week after taking some profits earlier in the week. Bought some Spy, Iwn, Efa, Adre, Epp, and I want to get into Dvy, Vwo and Xle. Will this be a smart move? Only time will tell. My take is that we aren't ready to meltdown yet, but I think we will, it is only a matter of time. If we run to the races from here that would be great but at some point some of the excess liquidity should get flushed out of this market. I am exploring the short Etfs from profunds. I may wind up buying and holding a few of them as a hedge, especially going into the summer doldrums. I will probably nibble a little more today if we are down a lot buying some Dvy, Efa and Iwn.