Inflation

Inflation numbers are high enough that you have to wonder about the Fed. Not certain that the Fed is totally out of the picture. Short term if the Fed raised again that would suck some of the wind out of this market. Hopefully we won't have to worry about that until next year after I have booked some profits. Futures have now really backed off and it is looking pretty dicey about where we go from here.

Nice

Out of the gate foreign is strong. The housing number doesn't seem to be having any negative effect on things and the Fed's rather hawkish speak yesterday is a yawn.

I am currently exploring how to play for a weakening dollar. I want to get into a fund that goes short the dollar and then into a couple of foreign currency funds. I think I will also be beefing up my foreign exposure next year. There are strong negative head winds for the US long term I fear. Things could be very shaky next year. Apparently with corporate profits at record highs this is enough to get people to plow more money into stocks. Yet, the economy is going to slow, the Fed has assured that will happen, so what impact is that going to have in future earnings? And how is corporate america going to compensate? More job cuts I guess??

Green

Made it into the green by the close. That is good, but I don't think was are back in bull mode. It would make sense for the market to consolidate here, but if the dollar doesn't settle down that will be enough I think for the selling to pick up. It looks awfully shaking going into year end.

Drifting

We are sloshing around so far today. It is not bad. Would be nice to see some fresh money come in, but I don't see any real reason to get bullish here. Today's economic news should be a good case for the Fed to ease rather then tighten. I am not a believer that the housing slowdown is going to have a drastic impact on things and in fact todays housing numbers were better than expected.

Look like September

This is the worst loss I have seen since May. Major fugly. Will take a day or two to know if this is just a bull market sell off or the start of a new downtrend. I think it could be the latter, but again, I have been wrong in my predictions for most of the year.

fugly

If we continue drifting lower from here I think that we've seen the highs for the year and there will be no santa clause rally. This is looking nasty. I have tried predicting the direction of the market over the last three months and been wrong so I hope that I am wrong again. But it makes sense for there to be a sell off. We have been strong for way to long without having a pullback.

Line in the Sand

Now that wall street is back from vacation I expect today to be an important tell on how the market fairs into year end. We are weak out of the gate. If we can maintain here or somehow rally I have to believe that wall street is going to keep priming the pump into year end.

I think all of the focus on holiday sales is skewed. The internet has caused a fundamental change in the way consumers shop. I hope that cyber-monday comes through, as the media will be hyper focused on how much sales are racked up. Again, because of the adoption of broadband in the home, I think this idea that the Monday after thanksgiving has to be huge for there to be good holiday sales is bunk. People are shopping at various times for the holidays and using the old predictable patterns to follow trends doesn't work like it use to. I am expecting a very good holiday shopping season. Though not for everyone - i.e. Walmart....

buyers

Somehow the buyers are appearing and I see some green on my screen. Amazing. Again, where is the strength coming from? It is a question that I have been asking for the last 3 months.

Monday

Since it is a shorten trading session the damage today will probably not be too bad. It will be interesting to see how the market behaves Monday after all of the big wheels on wall street get back from their holiday. That will be the big tell about how this market will fair into year end. So far today the selling has been across the board but it is not as bad as I was expecting. The dollar weakness is going to be a long term negative trend. Another fear creeping up is that if we have a real strong holiday shopping season and if inflation stays strong the feds next move may be another hike and not a decrease in rates. That would be a negative for 2007.

Going lower

We have a nasty sell off that is going to occur on the open. The weakness is being blamed on a big fall in the dollar. The weakness is carrying over to overseas markets which are also selling off huge. Hearing that the Christmas rally may not materialize this year because of how much strength we've had over the last few months. Makes sense. I hadn't planned on selling until next year, but I might pull the trigger on some stuff today.

going higher

Thank goodness for eem and efa. It also looks like iwf is paying off. Foreign investing is the place to be.

I don't think the future growth in foreign markets is going to end. If anything I think the US is in trouble in regards to long term growth. We are exporting capitol and raw materials. We are receiving finished goods and gradually selling ourselves off to foreigners. I believe that history will show that the golden era for the US was the 20th century. This century will see the rise of China and other parts of Asia. The funny thing is the US is responsible for it. We are helping to westernize the rest of the world which increases competition. Global trade and outsourcing is going to be our undoing as far as being the one and only super power. We are getting sold out to the highest bidder. What will happen when foreigners quite floating our debt? What happens if the rest of the world begins turning against using the dollar? This is already starting to happen. Answer: it ain't gonna be pretty.

Holiday

It appears that we are going into the green once again after starting out in the red. This should be a lite volume week. I don't expect it to be too exciting. Where does the recurring strength come from? Who is stepping up and buying. I don't get it but I'll take it.

Still More?

If we can get over the early selling and close higher, well, it will be almost too good to be true. Hopefully hp stock can hang in there, SEC investigation is not going to help it.

Insane

Bulletin: This market has gone insane. That being said I am currently thrilled. That being said, I have to say, once again, how can this continue? Just because we are heading to year end? Is there still more money to come flowing in? Was today mostly short covering? It appears to me because the rally occurred near days end that this move was mainly short covering, which is okay on one hand, but certainly not great considering how far we have come without any sell off. A mild sell off a while back would of been healthy. How this strong momentum can continue I don't see. But you never know. I am staying with what I got through year end and will be doing some trimming next year.

Raging Bull

Is there nothing that can keep this market down? Crazy. What is it going to take?

Monday Mojo

So far today has started off strong. Mainly overseas but everything is currently in the green. I hope we get split election results. I am thinking that the market may not care.

Not Bad

This day turned out much better than I was expecting. Thanks to foreign holdings I squeaked out a little profit. Maybe we can hold here, but there is the much watched employment number out tomorrow. It is always something, I guess.

Ugly

It is shaping up to be an ugly day. I think this is the long overdue sell off and it could be a pretty steep one. After the dust settles it will be a buying opportunity short term, but will the long termer's hold in there or will they also bail? This could shape up to be just the beginning of a long trend sell off. I think I should think about deploying the rest of my cash. But, it does appear that next year is going to be rough sledding at least until the Fed starts cutting. Buying into this sell off may just bring more heartache by early next year. Early next year may be the real buying opportunity.

No Dips

There was no dip buying today. Seems strange. I don't like the way this market slowly sold off all day long. It would seem that we are heading for a rough week. It may not be bad long term, could be the pause that refreshes.. It still would have been better to of seen a little dip buying especially near the end of the day.

Don't like today

We started out strong but the selling has been slow and steady. That is not good. We need some good numbers to come out or we could start a long slow sell off. The foreign markets were staying strong but they are slowly eroding.