End of the Year

The last trading day of the year. 2006 has been quite a year. Thank you wall street for ETF's, they have saved me from financial heartache. This month has given me some fabulous dividend and capital gains payouts. I know I am not suppose to appreciate the capital gains, at least according to many columnists and financial web sites, but I love getting paid all the money I can get. I'll take the capital gains every time and pay my taxes and have a nice day.

What will 2007 bring? It is going to be a tricky year I am afraid. There are so many headwinds for this market to overcome. The falling dollar. The Fed. The inverted yield curve. The housing market. The energy market. etc, etc. I will probably be doing some selling next month to pull in my profits. will definitely be selling some of my HP stock.

Late Surge

Go figure. We ended near the highs of the day. Again I don't understand how we keep coming up smelling like roses. We've gone way too long without a pull back. Hp stock, wow!! Trying to come up with a trading plan for next year. I think I will be buying and holding LOR and possibly XLE and XLU. I am looking to hold some stuff that will give me a decent yield.

Grinch

The bulls tried to rally earlier this morning but to no avail. I don't think that this is a good tell for things to come next week and I really don't think that wall street is going to be happy with things when they get back from vacation next year. Will have to think about whether to pull in profits next week or risk melting down further and hope for a new years rally.

A sure thing?

80% of the time the stock market rallys before Christmas. So far this market is saying that we have trouble ahead for next year. This week was not particularly bullish and next week is going to be an interesting tell. It is going to take a lot for the bulls to get the fire stoked today. Let's see what happens..

Where is Santa?

Well, the futures are now higher after the last econ report for '06. I haven't understood what has held this market together for quite some time now. I am expecting a major pull back which I think will be a buying opportunity. But the Fed is the wild card for next year. I am not convinced that the Fed is done raising rates. That will rattle the market. So I will sit and hold tight until next year. Dividends are paying out right now, which I like. Hp stock has pushed even higher, that, I really don't understand and I will be unloading some of it next month. Heres hoping that we get a nice rally into Christmas.

December

So far am pretty much flat for December. Considering the run we've had for the last few months I'll be happy to finish the year where I am at. LOR went Xdividend today and so the share price dropped, should have paid more attention to when it paid the dividend to get into it but I am planning on making LOR a hold into next year so I'm okay with it.

We take a hit?

It appears that we are heading for a downturn. Possibly because the consumer is so strong that wall street fears another Fed rate hike. I think it is possible. I should probably think about doing some selling before year end as I am not feeling like a Santa Clause rally is in the cards this year.

choppy

I expect choppy action, going nowhere, except maybe down, until the Fed. Let's hope that the Fed keeps his mouth shut. This market is looking for any reason to sell off, it won't take much. The end of the trading year won't be arriving soon enough for me.

Monday Malase?

More of the same? Very mixed out of the gate. Foreign has started out weak. So far am happy about my purchase of LOR. Still mixed about PMO. That may not have been a good thing. Still planning on holding on through year end. Hp stock is heading higher. I don't know why, but I am hoping that it hangs in there until next month when I will do some selling. The scandal still has a hold on the company and if Mark Hurd gets swept up into it there will be a major sell off.

More of the same?

Selling out of the gate, but am already off the lows of the day. Are we yet again going to get traction and move higher? Whoops, already back to hitting the lows for the day. Some selling here would not be a surprise. Can they keep propping the market up into year end? That is the question. Next year is going to be very interesting...

Lor

Bought 500 LOR. Is this the right time to be buying anything? I don't know but I've been regretting not getting into LOR a while back and decided to jump on board. It ups my yield and gives me more exposure to foreign markets. I am more positive on that than buying in the US but if the US dollar keeps sliding and the market takes a hit it will effect everything worldwide. Here is to hoping that somehow the market can continue to hold through year end.

The Week

It wasn't a bad week overall. But there are still rather large hurdles in the future. Looking for a hedge against the falling dollar. I don't know how we can rally if the dollar doesn't start a little bit of a recovery. I may buy one of the currency etf's. I have cash to deploy possibly buying LOR and FXE.

Realization

Well, the verdict is in and the next Fed move will be a cut. Everybody was getting pumped about the Fed cutting even though history shows that when the Fed starts cutting the market sells off. Why? Because growth is slowing and that will negatively affect corporate earnings which means stock prices need to adjust. The adjustment is to move lower. So here we are with some selling picking up. Is this the crack that leads to a more major move lower? It will take more than a day or two to know. If we are in the process of a new lower trend it will be a slow steady process of selling over the coming weeks.

I sold my money market fund this morning and have some fresh cash ready to deploy. The question is where to put it. I am eyeing both lor and pfn as prospects.